The USDA’s new ag trade forecast for the 2025 fiscal year is out. Chief Economist Seth Meyer calls it a continuation of short-term trends seen in recent years.
“U.S. export value has been falling since 2022, but of course, part of that is because commodity prices were peaking out in 2022, right? So, again, your exports falling in this situation isn’t necessarily a surprise for how commodity prices continue to moderate.”
Export news for the U.S. is not all bad. Meyer says while sales of bulk commodities are down, exports of high-value items are on the rise.
“For livestock, poultry, [and] dairy exports, they’re forecast $700 million higher, and that gets us to a total of $39.3 billion. You’ve got increases basically across the board. Beef exports: $400 million increase to $8.8 million, and you’ve got higher volumes, [which] are offsetting some of those lower unit values, so a little bit of easing of price more than offset by some growth in volume. That is a good thing; we do a fair amount of business, high-value business, in beef exports, so we get a little bit of trim in price and have some volume increases, again, of a different fortune for livestock exports go up $700 million in livestock, poultry, and dairy.”
U.S. ag product imports are projected to be up more than $9 billion, with USDA projecting a trade deficit of $45.5 billion.
